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The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling, by Adam Kucharski
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There is one thing about gambling that everyone knows: the house always wins. Lotteries are set up to guarantee profits, to the state. A craps game is a sure thing, but only if you own the table. Sometimes, however, everyone is wrong. After all, the reason that casinos ban card counters is that counting cards works. Indeed, for the past 500 years, gamblers—led by mathematicians and scientists—have been trying to figure out how to turn the tables on the house and pull the rug out from under Lady Luck.
In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have done it, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. From Galileo to Alan Turing, betting has been scientists’ playground for ideas: dice games in sixteenth-century bars gave birth to the theory of probability, and poker to game theory (mathematician John von Neumann wanted to improve his game) and to much of artificial intelligence. Kucharski gives us a collection of rogues, geniuses, and mavericks who are equally at home in a casino in Monte Carlo as investigating how to build an atomic bomb for the Manhattan Project. They include the mathematician who flipped a coin 25,000 times to see if it was fair; the college kids who gamed the Massachusetts lottery to yield millions of dollars in profit; and the horse-betting syndicates of Hong Kong’s Happy Valley, who turned a wager on ponies into a multi-billion-dollar industry.
With mathematical rigor and narrative flair, �Adam Kucharski reveals the tangled history of betting and science. The house can seem unbeatable. In this book, Kucharski shows us just why it isn’t. Even better, he shows us how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world�
- Sales Rank: #219281 in Books
- Published on: 2016-02-23
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x 1.00" w x 6.13" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 288 pages
Review
Praise for The Perfect Bet:
“An elegant and amusing account…Anyone planning to enter a casino or place an online bet would be advised to keep this book handy.”
—Wall Street Journal
“[THE PERFECT BET is] terrific: beautifully written, solidly researched and full of surprises. It’s also practical. Even if you don’t spend time at Las Vegas you’ll be surprised by the clarity it will bring to your day.”
—New York Times Numberplay blog
“Kucharski delivers a fascinating read.”
—Publishers Weekly
“A lucid yet sophisticated look at the mathematics of probability as it's played out on gaming tables, arenas, and fields… gamblers and math buffs alike will enjoy it for its smart approach to real-world problems.”
—Kirkus Reviews
“Kucharski does a remarkable job of telling the story of how gambling has influenced science and science has influenced gambling. He manages to make it a good read while providing a scholarly underpinning.”
—J. Doyne Farmer, Director of the Complexity Economics program at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School
“This book contains so many great stories of how smart people have used maths, statistics and science to try and beat the odds—legally. It almost, but not quite, makes me want to take up gambling.”
—David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge
“With an entertaining writing style, Adam Kucharski guides us through the history and state of the art of The Perfect Bet, showing us how mathematics and computers are used to come up with optimal ways to gamble, play games, bluff, and invest our money. Extremely well-written and carefully researched. I highly recommend it.”
—Arthur Benjamin, Author of The Magic of Math: Solving for X and Figuring out whY
“In The Perfect Bet, Adam Kucharski takes us on a wild ride through the history, psychology, mathematics, and technology of gaming—a remarkable look behind the curtain of what most people think is intuitive, but isn't.”
—Paul Offit, author of Bad Faith and Autism’s False Prophets
From the Back Cover
There is one thing about gambling that everyone knows: the house always wins. Lotteries are set up to guarantee profits, to the state. A craps game is a sure thing, but only if you own the table. Sometimes, however, everyone is wrong. After all, the reason that casinos ban card counters is that counting cards works. Indeed, for the past 500 years, gamblers—led by mathematicians and scientists—have been trying to figure out how to turn the tables on the house and pull the rug out from under Lady Luck.
In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have done it, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. From Galileo to Alan Turing, betting has been scientists’ playground for ideas: dice games in sixteenth-century bars gave birth to the theory of probability, and poker to game theory (mathematician John von Neumann wanted to improve his game) and to much of artificial intelligence. Kucharski gives us a collection of rogues, geniuses, and mavericks who are equally at home in a casino in Monte Carlo as investigating how to build an atomic bomb for the Manhattan Project. He features the mathematician who flipped a coin 25,000 times to see if it was fair; the college kids who gamed the Massachusetts lottery to yield millions of dollars in profit; and the horse-betting syndicates of Hong Kong’s Happy Valley, who turned a wager on ponies into a multi-billion-dollar industry.
With mathematical rigor and narrative flair, Adam Kucharski reveals the tangled history of betting and science. The house can seem unbeatable. In this book, Kucharski shows us just why it isn’t. Even better, he shows us how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial in the pursuit of scientific knowledge and technological innovation.
About the Author
Adam Kucharski is a lecturer in mathematical modeling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and an award-winning science writer. He studied at the University of Warwick before completing a PhD in mathematics at the University of Cambridge. The winner of the 2012 Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize, Kucharski lives in London.
Most helpful customer reviews
16 of 16 people found the following review helpful.
From beginning to end you will enjoy, wonder and learn.
By mark
An amazing collection of ideas, facts, anecdotes, theories and stories brought together to express how betting relates to science - and visa versa. From psychological bias to The Great Wall of China, finance and ecosystems, tobacco advertising and prisoners, wine sales and exam results, horse racing to DNA sequencing, bots trying to reproduce human error, you will be fascinated at how these are all connected. Incredible in depth research and personal interviews ensure a unique perspective on this fascinating subject. From beginning to end you will enjoy, wonder and learn.
9 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
interesting material, uneven writing
By algo41
“The Perfect Bet” has much interesting material on the application of science to gambling; science includes physics, statistical methods, probability theory, more general mathematical analysis and artificial intelligence. The writing is uneven, but better in the later chapters, although I wonder whether “training” in artificial intelligence is as self-explanatory as the author seems to assume. Kucharski has an annoying habit of jumping around in his discussions. Some of this is due to digressions, only some of which are really relevant; e.g. is it useful to discuss Fisher’s work on experimental design as a background to the lottery problem of insuring that random outcomes do not lead to undesirable results, like too long between winners? If you wish to give the reader a feel for regression, I find the discussion of Galton’s work on inheritance an odd choice, and in a book designed to be readable by everyone do you need to mention Markov simulation and even Markov chains? I looked up Markov simulation in Wikipedia, and the idea is to use Markov chains to help generate random numbers with a particular probability distribution.
I had no idea that with the aid of cell phone capabilities you could use physics to beat roulette: cf. introductory anecdote to the chapter on roulette, although it is kind of buried much later in the chapter that the threesome were not using lasers, but probably using cell phone capabilities. The use of multiple decks by casinos to defeat card counters can be self-defeating if they do not shuffle enough, and the theory that tells how many times the casino needs to shuffle is also used to calculate the “mixing time” of chemical interactions. Use of computer like devices is now banned for both blackjack and poker (there is now an annual competition of poker bots who employ strategies like bluffing just as human players do, and are championship caliber players). Simulation has shown that complex ecosystems, with many species, will blow up unless some of the species are in a predator – prey relationship. The relevance of this is that financial markets subject to high speed trading often have many competing computer bots in the game, and because of the need for speed, these bots do not use sophisticated algorithms, kind of like animals, or at least computer representations of them.
10 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
I really enjoyed this book
By Amazon Customer
I really enjoyed this book. I'm not into gambling at all but there are some fascinating stories in here that are woven together very elegantly. Lots of nice insights into human (and not so human) behaviour.
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